As street protests intensify, as formerly apolitical and apathetic students and professionals rediscover their voice and electrify a nation, as more and more Filipinos express outrage over the rape of the nation by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s ecosystem of corruption and evil, the big question looms: "What Next?" Whether Mrs. Arroyo survives her biggest crisis and remains as illegal President of the Philippines; whether she resigns and gives way to Vice-President Noli de Castro; whether people power ousts Arroyo from office and installs a transitional or revolutionary government or defends the constitutional succession of Mr. de Castro; or whether a snap election is called, all roads lead to the national elections in May 2010.

Let us assume that Arroyo survives efforts to remove her from office. Her next move would be to amend the constitution to enable her to stay in office for as long as she likes. Her intentions in this regard are already clear from her failed attempt to convene a Constitutional Assembly using her Congressional puppets to do the dirty work.

However, given the current antipathy of most Filipinos towards her, any move on her part to remain in office will not only be heavily resisted. It will be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. Many have been holding back their "punches" and reluctantly tolerating her because they intend to get rid of her and her cronies in 2010. If that hope is thwarted due to Arroyo’s call for a constitutional assembly, she will be surely ousted from office, thereby accelerating her own demise. So under this scenario, the national elections in 2010 will usher in a future without Arroyo.

Scenario 2 envisions the intensification of peoples’ protests. Then the impossible happens. Arroyo, the Queen of Darkness, resigns. As provided for in the Philippine Constitution, her resignation paves the way for the succession of Vice-President Noli de Castro into the presidency. De Castro will govern the country as a lame duck but he will try to leverage his short stay in office to create political momentum for himself in 2010. He will defend the holding of national elections in 2010 because Mr. de Castro thinks that he will eventually be elected as President of the Philippines in 2010. In this way, Scenario 2 also leads to the 2010 elections.

Scenario 3 takes a different and more radical path. Peoples’ efforts to oust Arroyo gain tremendous momentum. People Power 3 emerges. Arroyo is removed from office by a coalition of citizens and the military who join the protesters, as in People Power 1 and 2. The leaders of People Power 3 do not believe in the constitutional succession of Mr. de Castro. They set up a transitional or a revolutionary government, depending on who will compose the successful People Power 3 movement.

An analysis of military uprisings and intentions in the past few years, however, reveals that it is unlikely that the leaders of People Power 3 will set up a military dictatorship. If they did, they would not be able to govern. They would be forced to "normalize" the situation in less than a year. Filipinos have a deep-seated resistance to martial law.

If the citizen-military alliance wants to run a transition government, they will most likely set a target for normalization and the likely candidate would be the already scheduled national elections in 2010. Those who espouse the creation of a transition government explain that they do not intend to remain permanently in control. They try to lessen the fears of Filipinos for the unknown or for a military solution by assuring us that they have acted only to remove an illegal and corrupt president. And in a short period of time, they would restore normal democratic processes.

Meanwhile, in the lead-up to the 2010 national elections, they will perhaps try to clean up massively corrupt institutions like the Commission on Elections, the Bureau of Internal Revenue, the Department of Budget and Management, among others.

If People Power 3 installs Noli de Castro, which is unlikely, then Scenario 3 will still lead to 2010. The reasons for this are explained in Scenario 2 above.

Scenario 4 is a call for a snap election, whether by Arroyo, de Castro, or a transitional government. This call will eventually and of necessity coincide with 2010. Special elections will be a very expensive exercise. In addition, special elections will only be meaningful if certain key government institutions are reformed, foremost among these is the Commission on Elections. The reform process will take time. Therefore, the most logical step would be to hold special elections in May 2010, which is not too far away, but which gives enough time to rehabilitate badly corrupted government institutions.

All four scenarios overwhelmingly point to the importance of the upcoming national elections in May 2010. Indeed, it is possible that other things could happen, for example, martial law or the permanent hold of Arroyo on power. But these are highly improbable events and will eventually lead to normalization and national elections, albeit delayed for a year or two.

Therefore, 2010 has the potential to become a profound turning point for the future of this country. We need only remind ourselves that the current turmoil is not simply about removing Arroyo from office. It is about the regeneration of Philippine society as a whole. Filipinos are fed up with traditional politics and traditional politicians (trapos). They want an overhaul of all those facets of Philippine society that they see as having become too corrupt and greedy. Therefore they will seek to remove ALL trapos, whether identified with the administration or the opposition, in order to create a new political, and eventually, societal order.

This is not to say that all the protests should stop now since ultimately what will count will be 2010. The four scenarios are not recipes for inaction. On the contrary, the four scenarios point to the deep, organic and strategic connection between what we do today and how we will act in 2010. For our actions today are the pre-conditions for what will happen in 2010.

The national elections in 2010 will only be meaningful and cathartic to the nation if citizens act TODAY and continuously strive to create a better country TODAY. Because we are reaching for the Truth today; because we are resisting corruption today; because we seek justice for all the abuses of human rights today; because we seek transparency and accountability from government officials today; because we are cleaning up the mess in the Commission on Elections today; then we are creating the moral basis and social momentum for a totally different kind of revolution in 2010. Indeed, the national elections of 2010 will only become meaningful and dramatic if we have done our homework today and in the months to come.

We are on the threshold of a new world. Let us not blow this historic moment because we believe that we are only a few facing a ruthless and gigantic ecosystem of evil. In fact, this system is rotten to its very core, providing compost and a fertile ground for the new seeds that are being sown by thousands of us across the country. When Arroyo tries to frighten us with her empty threat of "there are no alternatives", let us respond with conviction that our generation is, in fact, continuing the unfinished revolution started by our forefathers over a hundred years ago. And when we reach a certain momentum, there will be no room for corrupt politicians like her for they will all be consigned to the dustbin of history.

For indeed, the blessing of the Arroyo mess is the massive awakening happening to many of us--that we will build the new Philippines on the basis of truth, courage, morals, vision, and all those traits essential in birthing a new, visionary and principled country. She has given us no choice but to reach that deep source within that is incorruptible and unconquerable.

Yes, we have our failures and limitations. But there is something within us that can rise to the occasion despite all odds. That is our undefeatable creative spirit that now seeks expression in the larger social world. And as it grows and acts in us over the coming years, this creative spirit will express itself in culture, in the economy and in the political sphere where it will be preparing for the big gathering in 2010 that will change this country forever. That is our destiny. That is what awaits us. That is what will happen when our moral courage moves beyond ourselves and becomes the substance of a totally different world. For we will create the world that we have dreamed of and will die for. Let us not betray our highest ideals. Instead let us begin, today, the task that has been waiting for us and that has been prepared for generations.